I am back and I bring you football predictions...

The holiday was great, thank you.

Two quick predictions for today:

1. The English will get past Ecuador. The English press and fans suffer from a severe case of nationalistic football hubris (on holiday I read a Guardian article that called the English "one of the favorites" while referring to the Spanish team as "dark horses"). It will not matter wether England squeeze past Ecuador or manage a solid victory, headlines tomorrow will have the English on full march towards Berlin. This will make the gloating over the inevitable downfall all the more fulfilling and justified.
2. The Dutch will not get past Portugal. The Dutch fans suffer from a severe case of nationalistic football hubris. The press, not so much. Since 1974 and 1978 most press coverage of the Dutch team can be headlined either "What could go wrong?", "What went wrong?" or "Why didn't it go wrong?". If the Portugese score an early goal, I expect Dutch commentators to start mentioning the name Huntelaar at half time and not stop until the first qualifier for Euro2008. Gloating over the inevitable downfall will still be fulfilling and justified, but a shade less so then with the English.
   

More in the abstract, I would like the World Cup to be won be a team that (1) plays beautifully and wins convincingly, (2) is, despite of it's beautiful play and convincing wins, an underdog.

Brazil have won far too often, France have won too recently, Germany has won too often and has home advantage. England and Holland suffer from hubris that the Gods will never allow to go unpunished. Portugal or Spain would be good candidates.
That said, I am of course rooting for the Dutch. I will cheer even a totally undeserved win.